Don’t Blame the Fed

Line chart of mortgage rates: the average 30-year rate rose from 5.98% on Feb. 26, just before the Iran war began, to 7.40% on Oct. 15, 2026.

Asking the Fed what mortgage rates will do is like asking a sprinter to predict a marathon. The Fed sets one number: what banks charge each other overnight. Your mortgage, on the other hand, is a 30-year loan, and it’s priced off the 10-year Treasury bond. That bond is US government debt that investors buy, […]

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